- cross-posted to:
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- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
cross-posted from: https://lemmy.bestiver.se/post/1155652
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Couldn’t read it because of the paywall but I gotta wonder if this is a spurious correlation
The U.S. general fertility rate has fallen by 22% since 2007, a sustained decline not readily explained by economic conditions, contraceptive use, housing or childcare costs, or other commonly cited factors.
“I will now present no evidence whatsoever that falling birth rates haven’t been driven by economic factors.” Bull shit.
Fucking unhinged. We’ve had what, three? “once in a lifetime” crashes since 2007, with skyrocketing housing prices and costs of living vs comparatively flat wage growth. Inequality is rising, fascism is making a comeback around the globe, we’ve likely already hit numerous climate tipping points, child labour laws are being rolled back, oligarchs are floating bringing back corporate towns, but sure champ, people having easier access to porn is responsible for lower birth rates…
Yeah. Google for “did fertility decrease” and you get 99% “the real reason birth rates are declining worldwide”. Dude, that’s a different unit. A Liter is also not a Kilogramm.
And no, human fertility did not meaningfully decrease. Some populations have a slight dent explained by chemicals, diet (fast food) and living conditions (stress).
Among my millennial friends the majority do not own their own home, gave up family ideas, and are basically just fucked. Major reason I have a house is because when I was younger I killed a bunch of strangers for the government. Now even that isn’t enough for an increasing part of the country. Fuck, replacing my roof is going to be thousands of dollars which I only have part of right now.
Hmm, fertility dropped “from June 2007 through February 2011”. And they attribute it to the iPhone. But what else happened during that period? Oh right a big financial crisis.
And there’s already data out there that shows an economic decline correlates to a drop in births
I have my doubts too but to be fair they compared the data against Verizon and Sprint which did not have the iphone in that time.
But they did have other smart phones and if the claim were true, that would mean its something only affecting Apple users and that the effects are nearly instantaneous which makes no sense.
yes other smartphones existed but they were well behind iphone, especially in regards to web browsing.
Most iPhone purchasers at that time were high income, as it was an expensive new technology and the general consumer was happy getting ‘free’ phones from carriers. It was also costly and difficult to switch carriers. And further, I know from having worked in banking that it is very difficult to get accurate income data.
Taken together, my guess is this is just detecting the effect of higher income on lower birth rates.
Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winner!
Oh hang on let me rest this iPhone on my uterus some more.
National-survey evidence on time use and sexual behavior is consistent with the iPhone reducing in-person interactions, increasing pornography use, and reducing sexual frequency.
Whew! I was afraid they were going to say carrying your phone at your waist causes sterility or something.
😶🌫️
I skimmed the paper and wouldn’t take too much stock in it. One glaring issue I see is that the “control” for their analysis is another cell network that is absolutely tiny by comparison and services a completely different population from AT&T, so they’re not really isolating other variables, they’re cherry-picking data and over-indexing on it.
The other thing that immediately jumped out at me is the format-- it sure looks an awful lot like an academic thesis, and the authors are a professor and a student who started this work during their undergrad. There’s surely no way a respectable journal would publish this document in its current iteration, so why is it in the news? Weird.
