They definitely can defeat US intervention and cause a lot of damage to their position in the middle east, but I keep mulling over what they can win. They can certainly force them to abandon some bases closer to them and maybe even keep a toll of some kind of the strait, but I don’t think it’s realistic to expect to force the US to abandon the middle east and even Israel. At that point they’d need to actually move troops or something to do that, which isn’t realistic.
Maybe just force them to give up sanctions? And make the bomb?
They can win if they can get countries to stop trading in the petrodollar. Which so far so good. There’s no way the US abandons the region but if they can weaken US influence enough in the region to give themselves space to breathe, that’s a huge win.
Wouldn’t that be basically total defeat, economically, to the US? It’s not like the saudis and the other gulf states are gping to be allowed to trade in yuan.
It would yeah. It may not be achievable but it is the way that Iran wins. The other gulf states will trade in whatever currency is required to get their oil out. Right now they’re holding on but they can’t hold on forever. It’s a war of attrition and Iran wins if they don’t break first