Anthropic is already profitable if you take out the enormous spend they have on training, which if the bubble bursts would leave them as the number 1 ai provider, it’s also insanely in demand and has trouble keeping up with its current product, they also have several products mythos etc lined up

First off… Why in the world would you take out the enormous spend they have on training? Training is an ongoing expense, not a startup expense. If your expenses exceed your income, then you’re not making a profit.

Secondly, they had one quarter in which they reported (using non-GAAP accounting) a very slight amount of profit. That same quarter, SpaceX gave them a massive - and temporary - discount on rented compute.

We don’t have any reason to think they’re actually profitable.

I doubt it, I think it’d be closer to liberation day tariff’s or the oil crisis, it’ll go down for a bit, many articles will be written about how this is the worst thing ever then 6 months later it’ll be back up again

You’re way more optimistic than I am. If OpenAI and Anthropic crash, there are a huge number of businesses that have built themselves around their products, and those will crash, too. And I think you’re downplaying the damage the tariffs have already done.

As said all the major players in this game are super profitable major companies, that won’t change

Again, not true. OpenAI is not profitable. Anthropic is almost certainly not profitable. Grok from SpaceX is not profitable. Google is profitable, but not from Gemini. Microsoft is profitable, but not from Copilot.

No business that is built entirely on AI is profitable. Not one.

Look… No one’s arguing that the coding tools built around AI are entirely useless. They’re not (although their capabilities are way, waaaaay over-hyped). The problem is an economic one: Serving up AI models cannot be profitable. There’s just no way, especially now that we have small AI models that can be run on local workstations, and offer similar performance to the frontier models.

Qwen, running in a well-designed harness such as OpenCode, with a carefully written AGENTS.md file, is of comparable performance to at least Claude Sonnet, and possibly Claude Opus. All without the massive, ludicrous infrastructure requirements.

How is Anthropic supposed to compete with that? Sure, you can probably get something useful out of Opus faster, but at the cost of thousands of dollars. Using Qwen and similar local models is free.