- cross-posted to:
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- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
I won the Pulitzer Prize for History for Lords of Finance, my account of how four central bankers’ decisions triggered the Great Depression. I have just completed 1873, a book on America’s railroad boom of the 1870s — the last time private capital flooded into a transformative new infrastructure technology at a scale comparable to 2%–3% of GDP. That research is why, when I look at the AI buildout today, I am genuinely frightened.
I was in Tech for the .Net Crash and in Finance (in Lehman Brothers, no less, so front row) for the 2008 Crash.
To me what’s going on now stinks of both, because there’s not just one bubble but several, the biggest of which being the Tech Bubble around AI and the Realestate bubble responsible for the several fold higher house prices (in terms of house price to income ratio) than then historical average.
I expect that when one blows it will most likely unballance the broader Economy enough to cause the rest to blow.