The plant can process around 15 million tons of oil annually and produce approximately 5 million tons of gasoline, supplying fuel to the Moscow region.
Right now it’s kinda a battle between Ukraine’s ability to produce long ranged drones vs Russia’s ability to repair their oil and gas infrastructure. Keeping in mind that only 10% of drones have been making it to their targets, though that may increase in time.
Throughout the war they’ve been able to repair their infrastructure surprisingly quickly, even increasing production over time. That’s until the last month or so, where they’ve seen a pretty drastic drop in production ability. Nobody knows how long that will actually last, but it seems they’ve been hit pretty hard considering I believe they’ve paused gasoline exports until the end of November.
As far as imports for important tech to keep vital equipment running, it doesn’t seem the attempts to block trade with Russia has been super effective. Throughout the war they’ve created a lot of different ways to evade import bans through the use of shell corporations in countries they still do trade with like China. I think yesterday I saw an article that all their drones still had important parts being manufactured in Japan. Corporations are more than willing to turn a blind eye so long as it is technically legal trade.
Unfortunately the war in Iran has been a huge windfall for Russia, their national wealth fund is basically the life blood of the Russian economy, and it keeps growing as long as crude oil is above 59 dollars a barrel. Though they are banning exports of gasoline, they are still exporting more crude oil than ever. The attacks have mainly affected their ability to refine crude into gasoline, and other more valuable byproducts. If Ukraine could hit their ability to transport crude, that would have a much higher impact. That however would be much harder to do considering a lot of it is produced off shore, and it may upset some of their military partners who are cautious about raising fuel cost domestically.
Forbidding direct imports always adds friction, costs, delay, middlemen, possibility of counterfeit parts, etc. Plus reducing volumen.
Do you have any info on them repairing things faster than expected? I thought Ukraine switched their refinery targeting precisely to avoid them repairing it too quickly. Did that work?
Right now it’s kinda a battle between Ukraine’s ability to produce long ranged drones vs Russia’s ability to repair their oil and gas infrastructure. Keeping in mind that only 10% of drones have been making it to their targets, though that may increase in time.
Throughout the war they’ve been able to repair their infrastructure surprisingly quickly, even increasing production over time. That’s until the last month or so, where they’ve seen a pretty drastic drop in production ability. Nobody knows how long that will actually last, but it seems they’ve been hit pretty hard considering I believe they’ve paused gasoline exports until the end of November.
As far as imports for important tech to keep vital equipment running, it doesn’t seem the attempts to block trade with Russia has been super effective. Throughout the war they’ve created a lot of different ways to evade import bans through the use of shell corporations in countries they still do trade with like China. I think yesterday I saw an article that all their drones still had important parts being manufactured in Japan. Corporations are more than willing to turn a blind eye so long as it is technically legal trade.
Unfortunately the war in Iran has been a huge windfall for Russia, their national wealth fund is basically the life blood of the Russian economy, and it keeps growing as long as crude oil is above 59 dollars a barrel. Though they are banning exports of gasoline, they are still exporting more crude oil than ever. The attacks have mainly affected their ability to refine crude into gasoline, and other more valuable byproducts. If Ukraine could hit their ability to transport crude, that would have a much higher impact. That however would be much harder to do considering a lot of it is produced off shore, and it may upset some of their military partners who are cautious about raising fuel cost domestically.
Forbidding direct imports always adds friction, costs, delay, middlemen, possibility of counterfeit parts, etc. Plus reducing volumen.
Do you have any info on them repairing things faster than expected? I thought Ukraine switched their refinery targeting precisely to avoid them repairing it too quickly. Did that work?