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Cake day: July 12th, 2025

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  • Without reading the article first because it probably covers similar ground, here are my thoughts after hearing of this thought experiment somewhere else recently: The relevant question is the likelihood of a blue majority. I consider group A, the people who will press red in any case to save themselves. That’s probably a large percentage but might not be 50 %. But then I have to add group B, people who might have pressed blue but believe A to be over 50 % and because of this press red. Next is group C following the same thoughts, believing A + B to be over 50 % and because of that press red, and so on. All of this makes a win for blue almost impossible, leading to almost everyone pressing red. There will probably some remain who press blue either because they’re not thinking it through or because they, falsely in my opinion, would have taken on moral responsibility for “blues” dying and want to avoid that.

    While this is an interesting experiment, I don’t think it can be used as direct analogy for anything like elections in real life because those are rarely life-and-death decisions, so trying for a better but less likely outcome is viable. More importantly communication is possible.

    Edit: I just noticed that here it’s not stated that people cannot communicate. With communication it’s actually less interesting. You can try to convince everyone to press blue or everyone to press red. Both would have the same outcome if perfectly successful but with red people are more likely to do it and there’s no catastrophic failure if 50 % isn’t reached.











  • Actually, yes! What is “important” in a general sense is a similar question to that of the meaning of life. In the end there is no external, absolute rule of nature that decides this for us but we must create our own values. And privacy is such a value. In part you can derive it from others like personal freedom but that only moves the question. Different opinions on what our values should be and how to resolve conflicting ones in specific situations is the subject of ethics and has been debated since humans could debate.