Iran’s ability to externalize the consequences of this war (i.e. cause a global oil and economic crisis) is a point of leverage that the other countries invaded by the US lacked. This means that the war isn’t likely to settle into the kind of stagnant forever war that characterized Afghanistan, bur rather force the US to either keep escalating or back down. I believe the US would keep escalating until they suffer significant casualties, which might create enough domestic and international pressure for them to formally offer genuine concessions.
Alternatively, they (or the Israelis), may decide to go for the nuclear option instead. The same justification that the US used to nuke Japan, that they are fanatics in highly defensible terrain and thus too costly to defeat conventionally, can easily be repackaged and sold to the public for Iran. In that case, I can’t really make any predictions beyond that point. I really, really hope that doesn’t happen, but I can’t dismiss this possibility either.
Iran’s ability to externalize the consequences of this war (i.e. cause a global oil and economic crisis) is a point of leverage that the other countries invaded by the US lacked. This means that the war isn’t likely to settle into the kind of stagnant forever war that characterized Afghanistan, bur rather force the US to either keep escalating or back down. I believe the US would keep escalating until they suffer significant casualties, which might create enough domestic and international pressure for them to formally offer genuine concessions.
Alternatively, they (or the Israelis), may decide to go for the nuclear option instead. The same justification that the US used to nuke Japan, that they are fanatics in highly defensible terrain and thus too costly to defeat conventionally, can easily be repackaged and sold to the public for Iran. In that case, I can’t really make any predictions beyond that point. I really, really hope that doesn’t happen, but I can’t dismiss this possibility either.