

A constriction on GPUs is literally the best thing to ever happen to Chinese ML dev.
It made them thrifty, it made them focus, it forced them to go open weights, it made them build proper ASICs, research new techniques, pay engineers to implement them, and now their models are supremely efficient, dirt cheap, running Nvidia free on Huawei NPUs, and close to better tools than the US models.
Meanwhile, US models are all (except maybe Google) enshittifying and getting benchmaxxed. Engineers are wasting man hours hopelessly trying to scale training, which does not scale like people think, and are literally giving GPUs busywork to meet utilization quotas. They’re trying to scale data and parameter count, without improving architecture or data quality or even basic problems like random token sampling, and it’s not working anymore.
At the same time, the big US AI houses have squashed nearly every bit of “garage innovation” I’ve seen. Cool teams, hero devs with proven work on a budget, they all just disappear into the maw of Microsoft or whomever like it’s a black hole, their work never integrated into anything.
US AI is GOING to collapse because we gave all the money to tech bros so they can poison the well. The ML research community has been screaming this since like 2022. And apparently before, as Aaron Swartz allegedly identified Altman as a sociopath right before he died by suicide.
Sorry to rant.
Not that China doesn’t have significant dev issues, to be clear.
Europe, too.
But this is a sensitive point for me. Hobbyist machine learning has been a passion of mine for a decade, and it makes me sick to hear people quote Altman, like throwing GPUs at tech bros going to fix this. That. Is. A. LIE.
I don’t have a solution either. In the AI space, I do not even see a path back to moonshot-style cooperative innovation like the US has repeatedly pulled off before.







Not just them. GLM, Qwen, Kimi, Stepfun, Baidu’s models. Z-Image. Small finetuners, Huawei’s prototype. There’s even a Chinese fast food chain that trains a ridiculously good audio/text mixed model (Longcat).
I actually thought the recent Deepseek preview was a little underwhelming and “deep fried” compared to competition, though maybe it’s just underbaked. And the architecture is interesting.
Gemma is great, too, if Google would actually unrestrain it and give it Gemini’s architecture.
Europe is struggling though. Mistral (and everyone else) basically can’t do anything because the EU left regulation ambiguous; however strictly they regulate AI (and it should be pretty strict), anything is better than “we have no idea if we’ll get litigated, the law is clear as mud and might change?” They have at least one communal training project too, but everything I’ve seen is weirdly dated, architecture wise, like they’re living two years in the past.