• 0 Posts
  • 57 Comments
Joined 3 years ago
cake
Cake day: July 5th, 2023

help-circle




  • Its here to stay, but we are in the “we dont know the best way to use it try everything” phase.

    From my experience using it as a consumer, and writing custom agents; i think the way it will pan out is as specific tooling that unlocks things that weren reaaonable to do before. Key word here is tool. Its just a god damned tool.

    We will still need to hire people, because something llms can never do is be held accountable. Someone needs to use the tool.

    As far as the data centers, this is an overenthusastic bet that all compute will be rented. It wont. At best a few additional datacenters needed for hosted inference, not at the scale they are going for.






  • Yes, but votes are proportional to the number of shares owned, and most of the shares owned by non insiders are owned via index funds. So you meed to account for shares owned by the board members (including Elon himself), in addition to shares owned via proxy (shares in index funds, etfs, etc) where the proxy just votes with managment’s guidance. Its not like voting for a politician. Its more akin to 77% of shares voted for it, which translates to a small number of people. The remining 23% are likely individual shareholders, hedge funds and family offices that disagree with the compensation.




  • If you asked me last year, i might say its an existential crisis and they wont come back. Now though, I dont think thats necessarily a guarenteed outcome.

    The more I use AI at work, and the more I experiment with custom harnesses/agents, the more clear it is that every task it does provides an output that must be validated and checked. Therefore, its a convenience tool.

    Before VisiCalc, peoole had to make spreadsheets by hand on litteral paper. Manual calculations with a seperate calculator. Did VisiCalc (and later Excel) get rid of entry level jobs? I dont think it did.

    We already have ample evidence of large companies trying to replace people with AI, with disasterous results. For the companies that have been reducing headcount because of AI, all they are doing is exposing themselves to future competitors. MS and Google become IBM and Bell Labs. New, hungry competitora take their place, and they hire like mad so their competitors dont get the talent.

    We are seeing this play out right now in the case of hardware. Buying up all current and future supply to prevent competitors from having enough compute (without them getting a taste of course), but thats another story.

    As to when? Beats me man, i work for a small startup that is still in “hire people we know” mode.


  • Im still not totally convinced that its going to take entry level CS jobs. I have the concern, but part of me thinks the job will expand to things like MCP server building, harness creation or implementation, etc. In other words, any jobs lost to llm efficiency in producing code will be offset by needing to build more stuff.

    In addition, even if agents are doing some of the gruntwork, they wont be fully autonomous as they currently are. Anyone doing that (unsupervised coding) is going to get burned. Therefore, the new bottlenecks is review, but also business contezt complexity.

    Can i build things faater than before? Yes, but my new problem is keeping track of it all.