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Cake day: October 13th, 2024

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  • police doesn’t always appoints the perpetrator at random

    they (and people like yourself) believe they do, but errors in information/how they interpret information that led to the selection of any given individual makes even the perp brought in by the police potentially random.

    the ‘intent’ of the police is immaterial to the facts of how the process actually unfolds. when your high confidence witness’ produce a 12.5% error rate on a line up between 6-8 people. you are literally in the realm of a coin toss. in that study the %ages for when the witness selected a filler were worse than random.

    now agreeably the police are often essentially running a drakes equation for selecting the perp. but thats still entirely reliant on the quality of the information they are using for their identification. and often the line up is run early in the investigation. where they may only have eye witness information.

    and since none of that information was provided by the OP you dont get to assume anything about it.





  • That you’ve been provided proof that lineups are purposely selected from criteria

    no, i havent. and in fact anyone asserting this is absolutely moronic and has no idea what they are talking about for reasons I’ve already mentioned.

    im not doubling down you dunces just dont know what you’re talking about. again as I’ve stated repeatedly.

    lets start over so you can understand:

    If you showed me a lineup of 10 guys and asked me which one ran a worm farm I feel like I would get it right 100% of the time.

    you have:

    • a line up of 10 guys.

    you are asked:

    • which one ran a worm farm

    facts:

    • nothing in the original statement mentioned any criteria for the 10 guys selected. you chucklefucks are just hallucinating worse than an LLm.
    • the only mention of a worm farmer is in the problem being posed to the OP (or you) which is entirely independent of the fucking line up.

    chucklefucks:

    • morons asserting that the question asked about a set has anything to do with how the set was generated.

  • Because you dont actually understand what random is.

    I didnt bring up police line ups that’s someone else in this thread. Im just happy to point out how those are essentially random selection as well.

    My original point was that the OP was ambiguous on the selection process used for the population. thusly assuming a random selection process from the overall popullation is just as valid as assuming 1 worm farmer + 9 randoms.

    Now: randomness.

    Given a random population of N entities, assume you want a sample of M where M < N and you decide to filter by Y to get X sample.

    X is still random despite the filtering. all you’ve done is biased the N random population towards Y. but unless you remove the initial randomness (somehow… which is almost impossible btw). this is why so much of science is predicated on collecting large datasets because we have to make sure enough of the data has the attributes we want that it’ll show up for study once we apply our faulty filtering mechanisms. and its why we spend so much effort creating better and better filters. its also why algorithm that leverage randomness are so powerful, because they match the reality of the problems being solved.

    Using the line up as an example:

    1. witness says the individual they saw had a long wide nose and a blue shirt.
    2. reality: witness had a blue shirt.
    3. reality: The detective has very different definition of what a wide/long nose is than the witness.

    applying those two faulty filters to population N is still going to result in a random population because the initial candidate selection before applying those two (faulty) filters is random.




  • No, I’m reading the words that they said and parsed them

    yes, its your lack of comprehension about what you parsed that is the problem… the fact you can’t see that the information you’re asserting isnt actually in the text is literally my point. aka: your reading comprehension problem.

    you’re the one insisting that the alternative parsing is incorrect while simultaneously admitting that the information you’re claiming as part of the text was ‘inferred’.

    hint: inferences are not the same as facts. both random selection from the population and selecting 1 worm farmer and 9 randoms are valid inferences of the sentence.

    I never claimed you had an incorrect understanding of the sentence. only that it isnt the only possible meaning of the sentence.

    now move on.