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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • You have a rough point, but a $20k delta is too much. Thankfully, the comparison is between a “special” car and a boring workhorse, so the price delta isn’t reflective of the practical choices. 7-passenger PV5 looks to be about $50k, so less than $10k delta between a Sienna and a comparable EV van. Still a pretty big gap, especially to take up front, but closer to reasonable given your reasons. We are seeing the gap close more aggressively in the 5-passenger segment, but 3-row still has been focused on EV only for ‘premium’ experience.


  • People talk about that topic all the time.

    The drive train generally doesn’t need service. You don’t have to change oil, you don’t have to change transmission fluid, your transmission probably won’t grind itself into metallic dust because the transmission is a single speed and it’s certainly not a CVT. You don’t have a timing belt to change, or a serpentine belt to change, or an air filter to change. You don’t have to sweat an emissions problem, you don’t have to worry about error codes about running too rich or too lean. You don’t have to worry about your headgasket leaking. You don’t have a bay of stuff heated to around water’s boiling point for extended durations accelerating wear on various hoses. You aren’t going to have a belt tensioner go south, the DC/DC converter is less likely to lose it than an alternator. You won’t need to replace spark plugs, you aren’t going to have a turbo that screws you over.

    Instead of all of that, you have a pretty bullet proof drive train except that the battery will chemically wear, but even that seems to be not as bad as believed with battery management systems babying the batteries. The car almost certainly weighs too much, which will manifest in handling and tire wear.

    And of course, there’s gas v. electric. If (and sadly only if) you charge at home, an EV in my area is roughly like having a hybrid and $1.00/gallon gas. If you charge publicly… yeah that’s priced really high.

    So at one point, there will likely be a huge single expense for the battery. However, that is instead of frequent oil and air filter changes, occasional belt replacement, and a host of likely repairs that a gas car generally incurs over that sime time. One very big expense at once instead of tons of little expenses and a few big expenses.

    If the initial cost of the vehicle were competitive, hands down the EV is going to be the right choice if you can charge at home. Trickier question in an apartment or renter’s scenario.




  • Frankly, that second idea seems really consistent with whatever residual brand value they have.

    Unfortunately, they got burned by doing it poorly around 2017 and seem to have been scared off of playing in that space ever.

    The first is probably already done but maybe not enough to keep the niche afloat. If the GoPro’s need replacement, then they won’t have a reputation for durability. If they keep going, then why replace your old one when it already does 4k 60fps? Problem is either they need replacement and erode brand strength, or are durable and can’t compete with already owned product. That path probably most likely ends with selling themselves to some other company that will probably slap the name on random Chinese cameras.


  • The USA has great data infrastructure and comparitively cheap power compared to anywhere else that has a vaguely credible grid.

    Staff barely matters, the handful of folks they need is a rounding error in the scheme of things.

    Real estate in rural America is pretty cheap too. Since they don’t care about proximity to anything day to day, they just need to make sure there’s credible access to power, data, and water.

    Meanwhile, they have a government that varies through different degrees of support and pretty much never wavering toward the side of making life difficult so long as they stay at home, but will make things more complicated.

    If they did build somewhere that was cheaper, it would be unreliable for their customer base due to network connectivity, and they’d probably have a problem keeping their datacenter suitably powered, and some the US would get pissy about exporting that much compute.


  • My car does this based on which keyfob is in the driver seat.

    Various things like the seat position, radio presets, the color of the ambient lighting, some various driver mode settings.

    I mean, it’s weird terminology and to my knowledge doesn’t imply anything about logging into any ‘online’ profile, just changing to another person’s settings. Adding a profile just requested some label, no email address or anything. Just something to associate with the keyfob.

    It also has a driver facing camera, but it doesn’t use that for detecting which driver is there.





  • It is, but unintended consequences.

    With this, then we couldn’t afford Sam Altman to experience failure because he will drag folks down with him. So the companies invested become too big to fall, and the still private leadership gets to run things however they wish knowing the government will cover for any mistakes.

    It’s bad enough as the government will panic about retirement accounts when they falter, this exacerbates it.

    It’s a risky form of private-public partnership, with a lot of ways the company can privatize rewards but socialize the risk.



  • If AI takes every job, you can’t really have capitalism anymore, so what happens next?

    Problem is if that is a vaguely possible outcome, then it still doesn’t quite make sense that the capitalists are pumping the hell out of it. “I’m going to get rich making it meaningless to be rich!” So I’m skeptical on this.

    You may be right that folks are pissed about the datacenters, openai, and such despite in theory liking the concept of AI, but the optimisim of those folks are being weaponized for those big companies.


  • For me, I’ve long had little patience for shoddy work from a lot of people. I am used to making sure I have a fundamental understanding of things before I make proclamations about why something is the way it is or how to improve it. To me, AI is largely horrible because it just spews out plausible sounding stuff without understanding, which turns out to be a strategy that works often enough, but creates huge headaches in obnoxious ways when it is wrong.

    For a lot of others I work with, that has been their whole career strategy, when in doubt, just spew words that seem plausible and hope it works out. AI actually can compete with them in many ways because they have largely built their career of making plausible sounding guesses that get ignored when they are totally wrong and praised when they happen to be right. This crowd loves the AI, and they also get promoted because society rewards confidence more than competence.

    Another facet is that so many folks reckon themselves to be creative geniuses with no time to realize their great ideas, and they see the slurry of hollow crap they can fling onto the internet as fantastic, while the rest of us are exhausted by a flood of soulless crap drowning out some of the content we used to enjoy discovering.

    Keep in mind that clickbait has long worked and enough people want to engage with clickbait, while another contingent smells it a mile away and wants to avoid it at all costs as they know it’s empty crap to bait us. I suspect there’s a similar breakdown of AI fans and foes, excepting that AI is at least useful in certain contexts.


  • Towards the end of the month I just start generating mindless crap so I don’t get “dinged” for under-using AI.

    The rest of the month I always set the model to the most expensive to try to naturally burn through my quota and get marginally less annoyed by the even worse suggestions from the default models.

    Since burning through tokens really involves letting it invoke commands, I don’t really burn that much naturally since I don’t like reviewing and approving commands and I’m sure as hell not going to let it just run comands at will.


  • They think once the ball is rolling, then they can phase out the humans.

    They think that AI usage is like training a junior dev, that it starts out hopeless but over time can operate without the expertise.

    They don’t realize that invoking AI doesn’t work that way, that the context window is the only accumulation of anything germain to your codebase, and that the model doesn’t evolve based on that interaction.

    So they don’t care about the skills, they want to get to the point where they can toss a prompt into Claude and have it all taken care of, thinking that their employee usage of it somehow accelerates that outcome.