They definitely can defeat US intervention and cause a lot of damage to their position in the middle east, but I keep mulling over what they can win. They can certainly force them to abandon some bases closer to them and maybe even keep a toll of some kind of the strait, but I don’t think it’s realistic to expect to force the US to abandon the middle east and even Israel. At that point they’d need to actually move troops or something to do that, which isn’t realistic.

Maybe just force them to give up sanctions? And make the bomb?

  • besbin@lemmygrad.ml
    0·
    3 months ago

    Having a toll booth at Hormuz in any capacity would be the goal for Iran that would made any other points kinda moot in the long term. Here is a short list of some of the impacts:

    • Erode the power of the petrodollar collapsing the US empire economy
    • Allow Iran to basically circumvent any sanctions place on them since they can just take that back as toll
    • De-legitimized the gulf monarchies and allow Iran to build up friendly group inside those states
    • Place other gulf nations economic control in the hand of Iran and thus boost their ability to build up friendly forces there
    • Threaten the US and any hostile states intervention in the gulf states since those states will have tons of people depending on Iran

    With that kinda power in hand even if the US and occupied Palestine want to keep their bases and vassals in the gulf, it would just be a losing battle since the population will be hostile and cost of maintenance will be lopsidedly expensive.