Excerpt:
The IPO Math Forces the Issue
Both OpenAI and Anthropic are on IPO timelines for the second half of 2026. OpenAI completed the largest private funding round in history in April, $122 billion at an $852 billion post-money valuation. Anthropic has reportedly surpassed $30 billion in annualized revenue. Massive numbers, both of them. Also both attached to companies that are still burning cash at extraordinary rates.
Public markets will not tolerate the gap between subscription revenue and compute cost that has defined the past three years. The moment either company files, analysts will demand unit economics that show a path to margin. Usage-based billing is the fastest way to demonstrate that path.
None of this contradicts the repricing thesis. The pricing war is the last land grab before the gate closes. Both companies are spending aggressively now to lock in users whose switching costs will make them sticky when prices rise. OpenAI offers two months free. Anthropic offers 50% more capacity. Both expire in July. What comes after July is the real pricing.
This reminds me of the “pet rock” craze in the early 70’s. Everyone as getting them. They were everywhere. Myself, and a few others, never got one and never did. The whole “pet rock” thing came and went and passed us by. I plan to do the same for “AI”.
You missed on a lot with a pet rock, my daughter discovered them just a few years ago and was completely in heaven from the idea. Perhaps, the similar with AI?
They’re both essentially chunks of metal that people treat like living things. Except pet rocks don’t fuck the environment and siphon energy off the power grid.
Dammit! After hearing this maybe I should have tried harder to grab that brass ring. Life holds some regret for us all, I guess.
Man, comparing AI to a pet rock is crazy delusional.
Or was it allegorical? Ah, you’re right, let’s call it delusion. Who am I kidding?