Since he started work as NATO secretary-general almost two years ago, Mark Rutte has spent much of his time trying to keep the United States anchored to the world’s biggest military alliance.
Correct. Even with Operation Reassurance, which stations a sizeable contingent of NATO forces in all three states, the NATO assumption is that the Baltics will be largely overrun by any Russian attack before reinforcements can arrive. The strategic goals of the operation are a) to slow any Russian incursion down, and b) to ensure that an attack on any Baltic state would be a direct engagement with a large portion of NATO militaries, thus ensuring that it would constitute an article 5 trigger. As the name suggests, it’s more about reassurance - “We stand with these people and will fight to defend them” - than it is about actually stopping a Russian attack.
Edit: As of very recently this is no longer true. See below.
NATO assumption is that the Baltics will be largely overrun
That WAS (past tense) the assumption. After Russia’s showing in Ukraine, both the ineptitude and the atrocities, you can be certain they’re planning on defending the Baltics from the start.
So, apparently you are actually correct, although the change in posture is much more recent than you think. As in, within the last few weeks to months.
I will not be saying more on this because I’ll get people in trouble if I do.
I have no idea if that is the official policy, in any case official policy lags far after ideas come around. After Russia failed to take Ukraine in 3 days, you can rest assured discussions started pretty quickly about holding on to the Baltics. Nothing top secret about that, you can just think it through.
Read: it does not matter. You know you can think about these things before they become official policy.
Sure thing I’m wrong. Just like if you came across my comments saying this years ago you would have said I was wrong. But if you want it’s because they studied it and determined that they can hold on to it. You just have to think through it.
Yeah. It’s no longer okay to have a plan that says it’s okay if Russia takes some territory, we’ll just take it back a little later. We’ve now seen what happens to the people living in territory that happens to.
Correct. Even with Operation Reassurance, which stations a sizeable contingent of NATO forces in all three states, the NATO assumption is that the Baltics will be largely overrun by any Russian attack before reinforcements can arrive. The strategic goals of the operation are a) to slow any Russian incursion down, and b) to ensure that an attack on any Baltic state would be a direct engagement with a large portion of NATO militaries, thus ensuring that it would constitute an article 5 trigger. As the name suggests, it’s more about reassurance - “We stand with these people and will fight to defend them” - than it is about actually stopping a Russian attack.
Edit: As of very recently this is no longer true. See below.
That WAS (past tense) the assumption. After Russia’s showing in Ukraine, both the ineptitude and the atrocities, you can be certain they’re planning on defending the Baltics from the start.
So, apparently you are actually correct, although the change in posture is much more recent than you think. As in, within the last few weeks to months.
I will not be saying more on this because I’ll get people in trouble if I do.
I have no idea if that is the official policy, in any case official policy lags far after ideas come around. After Russia failed to take Ukraine in 3 days, you can rest assured discussions started pretty quickly about holding on to the Baltics. Nothing top secret about that, you can just think it through.
That’s OK. I do.
Like I said, you’re right, though the change was recent enough that I hadn’t been aware of it until I double checked.
You’re wrong about the reasons why the posture changed, but I really can’t get into that.
Read: it does not matter. You know you can think about these things before they become official policy.
Sure thing I’m wrong. Just like if you came across my comments saying this years ago you would have said I was wrong. But if you want it’s because they studied it and determined that they can hold on to it. You just have to think through it.
Yeah. It’s no longer okay to have a plan that says it’s okay if Russia takes some territory, we’ll just take it back a little later. We’ve now seen what happens to the people living in territory that happens to.