- cross-posted to:
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- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
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For those that didn’t see the article from yesterday, the relevant rule that they refused to waive was the one that said a company must be profitable.
lol
Lololololol the president of my company went full AI shithead recently and he posted how it was a big deal that they were going public and he was talking about how he see it as a great investment to purchase shares and I asked how it was a great investment to get shares of a company severely in the red and my comment got deleted in a few minutes
Edit: we also got claude code for everyone in the company and they are monitoring token use (as in we need to use a lot) and I asked if they were concerned that the token price would rise if the board of directors of anthropic suddenly wanted to make a profit and that comment also got deleted (this was in a virtual townhall so we can ask stuff, usually they just ignore the ones they don’t want to answer but they were actually deleting them this time)
Oh thank god
nice :)
I’ve already withdrawn money I had invested in US.
You can’t convince me this isn’t bubble:
Yup I moved mostly out of usd, no stocks listed in the US, no US Treasuries.
I see either default or massive inflation or both in the cards for the US very soon.
I’m still invested in some US stocks, but I’m switching my US market exposure to an index fund that weights by actual sales, revenue, and other objective factors, rather than market cap. Companies don’t even get into the index unless they turn a profit first.
Which index is that?
“Very soon” that’s what’s been said for years now. I too think this isn’t sustainable, but it sure feels like it’ll keep rolling for a number of years.
“markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent.”
Yup I’m definitely foregoing upside but I don’t want to be stressing about trying to find the best time to exit every day.
Here’s an even more interesting one:
It’s the P/E ratio (the ration between the stock Price of a company and it’s Earnings) of the Nasdaq vs the Price.
Notice how the Nasdaq price has tracked the P/E, with since at least 2020 the stock prices not increasing because company earnings are going up but rather just from increased speculation hence the rise in the ratio of stock Prices to Earnings.
The P/E (in other words, the company stock prices relative to the actual money a company makes) is now about twice as much as back in 2020.
It is a bubble, but ……
- a bubble is a great place to make huge gains …… as long as you get out in time
- usually a few companies survive the bubble pop. Their stock price baby also crashes but then recovers to “normal” valuation
I sit out bubbles because I recognize them but know I never know how to get out in time. But I do know some who succeed in riding the wave while still coming out the other side
Yup. Highest it’s ever been and there’s no explanation as to why. Not a sensible one anyway, given most are in the shit.
Is it because for every american their only choice to get any retirement or any interest on savings is to put it into stocks? Followed by massive speculation that maybe (I dont know this part) is driven by machine code that not only follows trends but creates them by thinking if everyone is investing and line goes up, maybe this is where the money should go, which reaffirms the algorithm. Until it doesn’t.
Surely these two things are a factor. That and companies continually laying people off, or cutting costs, or selling data which give the illusion of making money when really it’s just juggling the books and has no long term future.
The main issue as usual is US hegemony (or what’s left of it) has a way of fucking up the rest of the world. When that bubble pops it’s going to cause a whole bunch of industries trouble.
Hence why there is frantic effort in decoupling from USA and connecting with alternative markets in the rest of the world.
Yeah fucking finally too!
Every fucking american crisis bleeds into our countries every goddamn time, but they? Let’s do worse next time!! No regulation!! War!!
Aaaahrg.
/Rant off
I went 30% into international funds after the first recovery from Donald’s tariffs in spring 2025, when it became abundantly clear that our former trading partners were all hammering out new trade agreements. (Which take 1.5 - 2 years to take effect, but eventually they will and it’ll affect the US adversely.)
Been meaning to rebalance into money markets and bonds with how crazy this year’s been. This just makes me want to do that faster.
Tf happened in Spring 26?
We launched attacks on Iran to distract from the Epstein files, leading to the closure of the strait of Hormuz and dwindling oil reserves around the world. It was only like 3 months ago, I’m surprised you didn’t hear about this
Of course I heard. Last I checked war and oil shortages weren’t good for the economy
Excellent! Fuck Musk.
And while I’m not an AI hater, that is 100% the investors trying to cash out before the industry runs into trouble.
Yeah, it really is painfully obvious that the fatcats are trying to cash out on the bubble before it blows.
Orrrr its literally baked into the definition of what it means to be on the S&P.
I think you might have missed the original story. There was some fuckery going on with changes to the rules of what does and doesn’t get listed at IPO, seemingly designed to force the stock to (be allowed to) launch at a nonsensically high value on the indices, in turn forcing the least gamble-minded investors (which includes a fuckload of normal people via pensions, insurance schemes etc) into becoming bag holders for the most transparently greedy rug pull of all time.
I live eight thousand kilometers from the US, and have no vestigial belief in capitalism, and this made me sell my US index funds this week. What an irresponsible shitshow even if you believe in nothing besides capital, even if you are a true believer in this system.
The definition of being listed on any index isn’t waiting for someone to announce “I want each share to be worth ten trillion dollars! Actually no, eleventy billion dollars!” and taking that at face value. That’s why this is news. It’s not Mr Standard and Mr Poor sitting in an office and deciding they don’t like the stock.
Asset allocation funds might still include it. Your Vanguards and BlackRocks.
I’m not the most financially savvy person, but I’m wondering if they’ll pass based on fiduciary duty rules. It would be pretty tough to prove violation for something like this, but the question is whether or not they even want to open themselves up to the possibility. I guess it depends on how close they think the bubble is to bursting and if they think they can justify the risk with potential earnings
The popular Vanguard ETFs will definitely have it, they do track CRSP and FTSE Russell (VT and VTI for example) - Both of which adopted fast track rules that will allow SpaceX to become eligible 5 days after the IPO. Unless Vanguard themselves decide not to include it in their portfolios (seems unlikely but you never know). I think Vanguard does have some funds specific to tracking S&P but that’s not usually what people use Vanguard for.
e.g.
https://moneywise.com/news/top-stories/elon-musk-spacex-ipo-crsp-vti-ftse-russell-nasdaq-401k
That could lead to some interesting outcomes, how these funds look in 12 months could indeed be tied to which specific index(s) they are tracking.
The very broad funds definitely will - VTI/VTSAX - but at lower weights and under less time pressure than the rigid index funds (VOO/VFIAX). That takes off a lot of the liquidity squeeze and (presumably) reduces their loss.
But you have to remember that people who use these funds intentionally invest in obvious losers and willingly overpay for hyped stocks because they believe, in the long run, that buying obvious losers is more than balanced by also buying the unexpected winners.
SpaceX is just the first time an oligarch tried so obviously to rig the passive investor structure to his favor, and I’m glad the S&P people didn’t cave.
You mean Vanguard and Blackrock ETF?
Might? Also, when other Ai companies are already counted in the S&P or would be redundant.
Good.
Fuck Musk.
But let’s be real they’ll just wait the standard length for entry. No big deal for them. If he needs more funds I’m sure he can ask the US government again.
I have no idea what S&P 500 is, I assume it’s a stock market index for Fortune 500 companies? Anyway, for the sake of humour and laziness I’m just gonna pretend it stands for Salt & Pepper 500 and is a knock-off of Indy 500.
Not sure who the bags of douche downvoting this are, but good on you for asking questions and learning new things. Glad to see people in the thread are engaging with you positively in response.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500
Regardless of what you think about it, it’s good to know what it means because it’s like the financial thermometer of the US and what moves the world in a lot of ways
When the race starts at the Salt & Pepper 500, they blast “What’s New Pussycat” and leave it on repeat until a winner is crowned.
Standard & Poor
I got the second half
Why would this get downvoted so much?
Some people seem allergic to bad jokes, can’t say I blame them
